Unemployment hardest on 18 to 24 year olds

We all know that the current national unemployment rate of 9.7% represents only those people who are currently collecting unemployment benefits. It doesn’t count the millions of unemployed who have already burned through their unemployment and still cannot find work. By some estimates that puts the actual unemployment rate at about 14%.

Those are staggering numbers. But they also don’t tell the entire story. Whether it is fair or not, the reality of life is that the Old and the Young will be hurt the most.

Older people (over 45) generally get the boot from employers when times are lean because most companies want younger, energetic people who have more stamina and can handle higher workloads. This group will have the hardest time finding jobs. Although their experience is a plus, they are too close to retirement for many employers. They cost too much in insurance. They take too much time off for illness and they require higher salaries to pay for all the ‘stuff’ they have accumulated.

But the group from ages 18 – 24 may actually get hit the hardest. As of May 2009, the unemployment rate for 18 – 24 yr. olds. stood at 16.1% – far above the national average. Even still, those numbers again do not represent those people who have already used up all their unemployment. When you factor in ethnic and rural considerations, estimates are that the number may actually be as high as 20% in some areas.

Don’t be fooled by Obama’s “Mission Accomplished” statements. The recent slowdown of the unemployment rate from 9.5% to 9.4% does not actually represent any sort of recovery. On the other hand, as a conservative, I’m thrilled with Obama’s victory declaration.  For one, it means that he now accepts that the economy belongs to him. It was his stimulus package, and he has stepped out to graciously accept that “it is working”.

This means that in the next few months, when the unemployment rate begins to dive again – he will not be able to cover up the fact that he is a complete moron. It will become completely apparent by September that the current “reduction” in new unemployment claims was actually a result of two issues:

1. Companies had already taken all the “cost cutting” measures that they could. They had already cut back to the bare minimum. From here on, any cutting is absolute survival or closing down completely. The reduction in July unemployment claims are a result of a pause in the market to evaluate. Because stocks and housing have shown some signs of improvement, it bears some level of evaluation, before one tosses their entire life’s work in the trash.
2. Construction jobs got a slight boost from the stimulus. This led to fewer layoffs for July. But these jobs won’t last more than a month or two. After that, the money is gone – along with the jobs. The Architectural Billings Index, which is a leading indicator of construction jobs 8 – 12 months out, showed another drop in billings for June (Numbers for July have not been released yet). This index has been in decline for 18 straight months. Therefore, even if it had a miraculous instant recovery tomorrow, we would still have 8 more months of construction losses. (ie: we are 8 months away from the bottom of unemployment in construction)

So while I’m disappointed that the economy is still tanking, I admit that I get a sort of sick satisfaction knowing that finally, Obama will be revealed to be the fraud that he is.